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AerCap Holdings NV (AerCap Holdings NV) Altman Z-Score

: 0.73 (As of Today)
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The Altman Z-Score is a model designed to predict the likelihood of a company going bankrupt within the next two years. Created by American finance professor Edward Altman in 1968, the model is specifically designed for publicly traded manufacturing companies with assets greater than $1 million.

Warning Sign:

Altman Z-score of 0.73 is in distress zone. This implies bankruptcy possibility in the next two years.

AerCap Holdings NV has a Altman Z-Score of 0.73, indicating it is in Distress Zones. This implies bankrupcy possibility in the next two years.

The zones of discrimination were as such:

When Altman Z-Score <= 1.8, it is in Distress Zones.
When Altman Z-Score >= 3, it is in Safe Zones.
When Altman Z-Score is between 1.8 and 3, it is in Grey Zones.

The historical rank and industry rank for AerCap Holdings NV's Altman Z-Score or its related term are showing as below:

AER' s Altman Z-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.42   Med: 0.57   Max: 0.73
Current: 0.73

During the past 13 years, AerCap Holdings NV's highest Altman Z-Score was 0.73. The lowest was 0.42. And the median was 0.57.


AerCap Holdings NV Altman Z-Score Historical Data

The historical data trend for AerCap Holdings NV's Altman Z-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

AerCap Holdings NV Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Altman Z-Score
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 0.67 0.51 0.51 0.44 0.71

AerCap Holdings NV Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Altman Z-Score Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 0.44 0.56 0.61 0.65 0.71

Competitive Comparison

For the Rental & Leasing Services subindustry, AerCap Holdings NV's Altman Z-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Altman Z-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


AerCap Holdings NV Altman Z-Score Distribution

For the Business Services industry and Industrials sector, AerCap Holdings NV's Altman Z-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where AerCap Holdings NV's Altman Z-Score falls into.



AerCap Holdings NV Altman Z-Score Calculation

Altman Z-Score model is an accurate forecaster of failure up to two years prior to distress. It can be considered the assessment of the distress of industrial corporations.

AerCap Holdings NV's Altman Z-Score for today is calculated with this formula:

Z=1.2*X1+1.4*X2+3.3*X3+0.6*X4+1.0*X5
=1.2*0.062+1.4*0.1516+3.3*0.0459+0.6*0.3081+1.0*0.1063
=0.73

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency. GuruFocus does not calculate Altman Z-Score when X4 or X5 value is 0.

Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) ended in Dec. 2023:
Total Assets was $71,275 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $6,040 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $1,620 Mil.
Retained Earnings was $10,803 Mil.
Pre-Tax Income was 1086.955 + 1178.661 + 538.243 + 468.327 = $3,272 Mil.
Interest Expense was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = $0 Mil.
Revenue was 1895.807 + 1891.667 + 1923.052 + 1865.722 = $7,576 Mil.
Market Cap (Today) was $16,849 Mil.
Total Liabilities was $54,686 Mil.

* Note that for stock reported semi-annually or annually, GuruFocus uses latest annual data as the TTM data.

X1=Working Capital/Total Assets
=(Total Current Assets - Total Current Liabilities)/Total Assets
=(6040.07 - 1620.135)/71274.559
=0.062

X2=Retained Earnings/Total Assets
=10802.599/71274.559
=0.1516

X3=Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets
=(Pre-Tax Income - Interest Expense)/Total Assets
=(3272.186 - 0)/71274.559
=0.0459

X4=Market Value Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities
=Market Cap/Total Liabilities
=16849.451/54685.513
=0.3081

X5=Revenue/Total Assets
=7576.248/71274.559
=0.1063

The zones of discrimination were as such:

Distress Zones - 1.81 < Grey Zones < 2.99 - Safe Zones

AerCap Holdings NV has a Altman Z-Score of 0.73 indicating it is in Distress Zones.

Study by Altman found that companies that are in Distress Zone have more than 80% of chances of bankruptcy in two years.


AerCap Holdings NV  (NYSE:AER) Altman Z-Score Explanation

X1: The Working Capital/Total Assets (WC/TA) ratio is a measure of the net liquid assets of the firm relative to the total capitalization. Working capital is defined as the difference between current assets and current liabilities. Ordinarily, a firm experiencing consistent operating losses will have shrinking current assets in relation to total assets. Altman found this one proved to be the most valuable liquidity ratio comparing with the current ratio and the quick ratio. This is however the least significant of the five factors.

X2: Retained Earnings/Total Assets: the RE/TA ratio measures the leverage of a firm. Retained earnings is the account which reports the total amount of reinvested earnings and/or losses of a firm over its entire life. Those firms with high RE, relative to TA, have financed their assets through retention of profits and have not utilized as much debt.

X3, Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets (EBIT/TA): This ratio is a measure of the true productivity of the firm's assets, independent of any tax or leverage factors. Since a firm's ultimate existence is based on the earning power of its assets, this ratio appears to be particularly appropriate for studies dealing with corporate failure. This ratio continually outperforms other profitability measures, including cash flow.

X4, Market Value of Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities (MVE/TL): The measure shows how much the firm's assets can decline in value (measured by market value of equity plus debt) before the liabilities exceed the assets and the firm becomes insolvent.

X5, Revenue/Total Assets (S/TA): The capital-turnover ratio is a standard financial ratio illustrating the sales generating ability of the firm's assets.

Read more about Altman Z-Score and the original research.


Be Aware

Altman Z-Score does not apply to financial companies.


AerCap Holdings NV Altman Z-Score Related Terms

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AerCap Holdings NV (AerCap Holdings NV) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
65 St. Stephen's Green, AerCap House, Dublin, IRL, D02 YX20
AerCap Holdings NV is an aircraft leasing company. Its major activities include leasing, financing, sales, and management of commercial aircraft and engines. It also provides aircraft asset management and corporate services to securitization vehicles, joint ventures, and other third parties. Through its subsidiary, the group also provides engine leasing, certified aircraft engines, airframes, and engine parts. Its geographical segments include China, United States, and Other countries.
Executives
Michael George Walsh director 65 ST. STEPHEN'S GREEN, DUBLIN L2 2
James A Lawrence director 2211 S 47TH ST, PHOENIX AZ 85034
Michael Gradon director AERCAP HOUSE, 65 ST. STEPHEN'S GREEN, DUBLIN L2 2
Aengus Kelly officer: Chief Executive Officer AERCAP HOUSE, 65 ST. STEPHEN'S GREEN, DUBLIN L2 2
Den Dikken Wouter Marinus officer: Chief Operating Officer AERCAP HOUSE, 65 ST. STEPHEN'S GREEN, DUBLIN L2 2
James N Chapman director 14 ALPINE ROAD, GREENWICH CT 06830
Peter Juhas officer: Chief Financial Officer 65 ST. STEPHEN'S GREEN, DUBLIN L2 2
Philip Gene Scruggs officer: Chief Comm. Off. and President AERCAP HOUSE, 65 ST. STEPHEN'S GREEN, DUBLIN L2 2
Robert G Warden director AERCAP HOUSE, 65 ST. STEPHEN'S GREEN, DUBLIN L2 2
Marius Jonkhart director AERCAP HOUSE, 65 ST. STEPHEN'S GREEN, DUBLIN L2 2
Al Noaimi Salem Rashed Abdulla Ali director AERCAP HOUSE, 65 ST. STEPHEN'S GREEN, DUBLIN L2 2
Walter Field Mclallen director 1225 17TH AVE SOUTH, NASHVILLE TN 37212
Paul T Dacier director EMC CORPORATION, 176 SOUTH STREET, HOPKINTON MA 01748
Pieter Korteweg director C/O CERBERUS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT L.P., 299 PARK AVENUE - 22ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10171
Robert H Benmosche director 180 MAIDEN LANE, NEW YORK NY 10038