Alleghany Beneish M-Score Calculation
The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.
The M-Score Variables:
The M-score of Alleghany for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:
| M | = | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * DSRI | + | 0.528 * GMI | + | 0.404 * AQI | + | 0.892 * SGI | + | 0.115 * DEPI |
| = | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * 1.0502 | + | 0.528 * 1 | + | 0.404 * 0.9329 | + | 0.892 * 1.0958 | + | 0.115 * 1.0052 |
| - | 0.172 * SGAI | + | 4.679 * TATA | - | 0.327 * LVGI |
| - | 0.172 * 0.6845 | + | 4.679 * -0.055402 | - | 0.327 * 1.1353 |
| = | -2.62 |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
| This Year (Jun22) TTM: | Last Year (Jun21) TTM: |
Total Receivables was $3,811 Mil.
Revenue was 2605.839 + 2711.058 + 3534.117 + 2845.348 = $11,696 Mil.
Gross Profit was 2605.839 + 2711.058 + 3534.117 + 2845.348 = $11,696 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $6,377 Mil.
Total Assets was $31,008 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $320 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $181 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $56 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $390 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $2,340 Mil.
Net Income was -171.614 + 125.681 + 516.166 + -114.966 = $355 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 = $0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 641.211 + 510.903 + 286.09 + 634.961 = $2,073 Mil.
|
Total Receivables was $3,312 Mil.
Revenue was 2923.866 + 2610.829 + 2639.395 + 2500.048 = $10,674 Mil.
Gross Profit was 2923.866 + 2610.829 + 2639.395 + 2500.048 = $10,674 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $4,562 Mil.
Total Assets was $30,492 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $303 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $173 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $74 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $300 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $2,064 Mil.
|
1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index
Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.
A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.
| DSRI | = | (Receivables_t / Revenue_t) | / | (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) |
| = | (3811.288 / 11696.362) | / | (3311.923 / 10674.138) |
| = | 0.325852 | / | 0.310275 |
| | = | 1.0502 |
2. GMI = Gross Margin Index
Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.
Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.
| GMI | = | GrossMargin_t-1 | / | GrossMargin_t |
| = | (GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) | / | (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t) |
| = | (10674.138 / 10674.138) | / | (11696.362 / 11696.362) |
| = | 1 | / | 1 |
| | = | 1 |
3. AQI = Asset Quality Index
AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.
Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.
| AQI | = | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
| = | (1 - (6377.251 + 319.65) / 31007.865) | / | (1 - (4562.391 + 302.848) / 30491.661) |
| = | 0.784026 | / | 0.84044 |
| | = | 0.9329 |
4. SGI = Sales Growth Index
Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.
Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.
| SGI | = | Sales_t | / | Sales_t-1 |
| = | Revenue_t | / | Revenue_t-1 |
| = | 11696.362 | / | 10674.138 |
| | = | 1.0958 |
5. DEPI = Depreciation Index
Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.
DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.
| DEPI | = | (Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) | / | (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t)) |
| = | (173.034 / (173.034 + 302.848)) | / | (181.141 / (181.141 + 319.65)) |
| = | 0.363607 | / | 0.36171 |
| | = | 1.0052 |
Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.
6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index
The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.
SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.
| SGAI | = | (SGA_t / Sales_t) | / | (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1) |
| = | (55.513 / 11696.362) | / | (74.015 / 10674.138) |
| = | 0.004746 | / | 0.006934 |
| | = | 0.6845 |
7. LVGI = Leverage Index
The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.
An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage
| LVGI | = | ((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
| = | ((2339.598 + 389.837) / 31007.865) | / | ((2063.652 + 300.395) / 30491.661) |
| = | 0.088024 | / | 0.077531 |
| | = | 1.1353 |
8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets
Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.
| TATA | = | (IncomefromContinuingOperations_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t |
| = | (NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t |
| = | (355.267 - 0 | - | 2073.165) | / | 31007.865 |
| | = | -0.055402 |
An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Alleghany has a M-score of -2.62 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
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