Valvoline Beneish M-Score Historical Data
The historical data trend for Valvoline's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
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Valvoline Annual Data
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Trend |
Sep14 |
Sep15 |
Sep16 |
Sep17 |
Sep18 |
Sep19 |
Sep20 |
Sep21 |
Sep22 |
Sep23 |
| Beneish M-Score |
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-2.67 |
-1.10 |
-2.80 |
-2.33 |
0.18 |
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Valvoline Quarterly Data
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Mar19 |
Jun19 |
Sep19 |
Dec19 |
Mar20 |
Jun20 |
Sep20 |
Dec20 |
Mar21 |
Jun21 |
Sep21 |
Dec21 |
Mar22 |
Jun22 |
Sep22 |
Dec22 |
Mar23 |
Jun23 |
Sep23 |
Dec23 |
| Beneish M-Score |
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-2.20 |
2.00 |
- |
0.18 |
0.37 |
Competitive Comparison
For the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing subindustry, Valvoline's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Valvoline Beneish M-Score Distribution
For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Valvoline's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Valvoline's Beneish M-Score falls into.
Valvoline Beneish M-Score Calculation
The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.
The M-Score Variables:
The M-score of Valvoline for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:
| M | = | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * DSRI | + | 0.528 * GMI | + | 0.404 * AQI | + | 0.892 * SGI | + | 0.115 * DEPI |
| = | -4.84 | + | 0.92 * 1.2672 | + | 0.528 * 0.9979 | + | 0.404 * 1.283 | + | 0.892 * 1.158 | + | 0.115 * 0.9123 |
| - | 0.172 * SGAI | + | 4.679 * TATA | - | 0.327 * LVGI |
| - | 0.172 * 0.939 | + | 4.679 * 0.501273 | - | 0.327 * 0.991 |
| = | 0.37 |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
| This Year (Dec23) TTM: | Last Year (Dec22) TTM: |
Total Receivables was $84 Mil.
Revenue was 373.4 + 390 + 376.2 + 344.5 = $1,484 Mil.
Gross Profit was 134.8 + 148.3 + 150.7 + 126.7 = $561 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $711 Mil.
Total Assets was $2,709 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $1,115 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $95 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $276 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $317 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $1,811 Mil.
Net Income was 31.9 + 48.9 + 61.6 + 1227.3 = $1,370 Mil.
Non Operating Income was -0.1 + 36.6 + -5.3 + -7.4 = $24 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was 19.9 + 7.6 + -158.5 + 118.8 = $-12 Mil.
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Total Receivables was $57 Mil.
Revenue was 332.8 + 335.4 + 317.4 + 296 = $1,282 Mil.
Gross Profit was 118.8 + 129.1 + 127.8 + 107.3 = $483 Mil.
Total Current Assets was $1,701 Mil.
Total Assets was $3,552 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was $947 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was $73 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was $254 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was $924 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was $1,891 Mil.
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1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index
Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.
A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.
| DSRI | = | (Receivables_t / Revenue_t) | / | (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) |
| = | (83.5 / 1484.1) | / | (56.9 / 1281.6) |
| = | 0.056263 | / | 0.044398 |
| | = | 1.2672 |
2. GMI = Gross Margin Index
Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.
Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.
| GMI | = | GrossMargin_t-1 | / | GrossMargin_t |
| = | (GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) | / | (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t) |
| = | (483 / 1281.6) | / | (560.5 / 1484.1) |
| = | 0.376873 | / | 0.37767 |
| | = | 0.9979 |
3. AQI = Asset Quality Index
AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.
Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.
| AQI | = | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
| = | (1 - (710.6 + 1114.6) / 2709.3) | / | (1 - (1701.4 + 946.8) / 3551.5) |
| = | 0.32632 | / | 0.254343 |
| | = | 1.283 |
4. SGI = Sales Growth Index
Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.
Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.
| SGI | = | Sales_t | / | Sales_t-1 |
| = | Revenue_t | / | Revenue_t-1 |
| = | 1484.1 | / | 1281.6 |
| | = | 1.158 |
5. DEPI = Depreciation Index
Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.
DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.
| DEPI | = | (Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) | / | (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t)) |
| = | (73 / (73 + 946.8)) | / | (94.9 / (94.9 + 1114.6)) |
| = | 0.071583 | / | 0.078462 |
| | = | 0.9123 |
Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.
6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index
The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.
SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.
| SGAI | = | (SGA_t / Sales_t) | / | (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1) |
| = | (276.4 / 1484.1) | / | (254.2 / 1281.6) |
| = | 0.186241 | / | 0.198346 |
| | = | 0.939 |
7. LVGI = Leverage Index
The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.
An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage
| LVGI | = | ((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) | / | ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1) |
| = | ((1810.7 + 317.4) / 2709.3) | / | ((1890.6 + 924.4) / 3551.5) |
| = | 0.78548 | / | 0.792623 |
| | = | 0.991 |
8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets
Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.
| TATA | = | (IncomefromContinuingOperations_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t |
| = | (NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t | - | CashFlowsfromOperations_t) | / | TotalAssets_t |
| = | (1369.7 - 23.8 | - | -12.2) | / | 2709.3 |
| | = | 0.501273 |
An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Valvoline has a M-score of 0.37 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
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