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Green Brick Partners (Green Brick Partners) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

: $31.61 (As of Today)
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Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2024-04-18), Green Brick Partners's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $31.61. The stock price of Green Brick Partners is $52.225. Therefore, Green Brick Partners's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 1.7.

The historical rank and industry rank for Green Brick Partners's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

GRBK' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1.31   Med: 1.91   Max: 5.5
Current: 1.65

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Green Brick Partners was 5.50. The lowest was 1.31. And the median was 1.91.

GRBK's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked worse than
88.75% of 80 companies
in the Homebuilding & Construction industry
Industry Median: 0.8 vs GRBK: 1.65

Green Brick Partners Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for Green Brick Partners's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Green Brick Partners Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 4.03 5.54 5.51 15.26 31.61

Green Brick Partners Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 15.26 24.07 27.39 30.34 31.61

Competitive Comparison

For the Residential Construction subindustry, Green Brick Partners's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Green Brick Partners Price-to-Projected-FCF Distribution

For the Homebuilding & Construction industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Green Brick Partners's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Green Brick Partners's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.



Green Brick Partners Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Green Brick Partners's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $27.18.

Green Brick Partners's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Dec23)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(14.862653310476*27.1792+1300.704*0.8)/45.704
=31.61

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Green Brick Partners  (NYSE:GRBK) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

Green Brick Partners's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=52.225/31.605947550676
=1.65

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Green Brick Partners Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

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Green Brick Partners (Green Brick Partners) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2805 Dallas Parkway, Suite 400, Plano, TX, USA, 75093
Green Brick Partners Inc is a homebuilding and land development company. It acquires and develops land, as well as provides land and construction financing to its controlled builders. The company has three reportable segments: builder operations central, builder operations southeast, and land development. The majority of company's revenue is generated from the builder operations central segment that is entirely the operations of builders in Texas. The company is engaged in various aspects of the homebuilding process, including land acquisition and development, entitlements, design, construction, marketing, sales, and brand image creation. In addition to homebuilding, the company provides home financing services, such as mortgage and title, through its subsidiaries.
Executives
David Einhorn director, 10 percent owner 140 EAST 45TH STREET, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Jed Dolson officer: See Remarks 3131 HARVARD AVENUE, SUTE 103, DALLAS TX 75205
Dme Capital Management, Lp director, 10 percent owner 140 EAST 45TH STREET, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Dme Advisors Gp, L.l.c. director, 10 percent owner 140 EAST 45TH STREET, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Dme Advisors, Lp director, 10 percent owner 140 EAST 45TH STREET, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Greenlight Capital Inc director, 10 percent owner 140 EAST 45TH STREET, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Elizabeth Blake director BIOFUEL ENERGY CORP., 1600 BROADWAY SUITE 2200, DENVER CO 80202
Harry Brandler director 2 GRAND CENTRAL TOWER, 140 EAST 45TH STREET, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Kathleen Olsen director 4 BROOKSIDE DRIVE, PORT WASHINGTON NY 11050
Richard S Press director 101 BOGLE STREET, WESTON MA 02493
Richard Arthur Costello officer: Chief Financial Officer 2805 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 400, PLANO TX 75093
Neal J Suit officer: General Counsel & EVP C/O LEGACY HOUSING CORPORATION, 1600 AIRPORT FREEWAY, #100, BEDFORD TX 76022
Lila A Murphy director 2000 S. COLORADO BLVD., SUITE 10200, DENVER CO 80222
John R Farris director P.O. BOX 309, FRANKFORT KY 40602-0309
Summer Loveland officer: Chief Accounting Officer 2805 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 400, PLANO TX 75093