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Martin Marietta Materials (Martin Marietta Materials) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $368.84 (As of Today)
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As of today (2024-04-19), Martin Marietta Materials's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $368.84.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Martin Marietta Materials's Predictability Rank is 5-Stars.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Martin Marietta Materials is -56.14%.

The industry rank for Martin Marietta Materials's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

MLM's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is ranked worse than
72.92% of 48 companies
in the Building Materials industry
Industry Median: 0.77 vs MLM: 1.56

Martin Marietta Materials Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Martin Marietta Materials's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Array ( [0] => - [1] => - [2] => - [3] => - [4] => - [5] => 189.52 [6] => 404.40 [7] => 481.10 [8] => 265.58 [9] => 405.07 )
Martin Marietta Materials Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 189.52 404.40 481.10 265.58 405.07

Martin Marietta Materials Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 265.58 242.90 349.62 364.87 405.07

Competitive Comparison

For the Building Materials subindustry, Martin Marietta Materials's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Martin Marietta Materials Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution

For the Building Materials industry and Basic Materials sector, Martin Marietta Materials's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Martin Marietta Materials's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.



Martin Marietta Materials Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.63%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 17.30%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Martin Marietta Materials's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 17.30%, which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 17.30%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $14.148.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Martin Marietta Materials's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.173)/(1+0.11) = 1.0567567567568
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=14.148*26.0704
=368.84

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(368.84-575.89)/368.84
=-56.14 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Martin Marietta Materials  (NYSE:MLM) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Martin Marietta Materials Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

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Martin Marietta Materials (Martin Marietta Materials) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
4123 Parklake Avenue, Raleigh, NC, USA, 27612
Martin Marietta Materials is one of the United States' largest producer of construction aggregates (crushed stone, sand, and gravel). In 2022, Martin Marietta sold 207 million tons of aggregates. Martin Marietta's most important markets include Texas, Colorado, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida, accounting for most of its sales. The company also produces cement in Texas and uses its aggregates in its asphalt and ready-mixed concrete businesses. Martin's magnesia specialties business produces magnesia-based chemical products and dolomitic lime.
Executives
Craig M Latorre officer: Sr. VP, CHRO 2710 WYCLIFF ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27607
Kelly Gean Bennett officer: Sr VP, Human Resources 4123 PARKLAKE AVENUE, RALEIGH NC 27612
Sue W Cole director C/O US TRUST CO OF NORTH CAROLINA, 301 N. ELM ST., GREENSBORO NC 27401
Oliver W Brooks officer: SVP - Enterprise Excellence 4123 PARKLAKE AVENUE, RALEIGH NC 27612
John P Mohr officer: SVP - CIO 2710 WYCLIFF ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27607
Michael J Petro officer: SVP - Strategy and Development 4123 PARKLAKE AVENUE, RALEIGH NC 27612
C Howard Nye officer: Pres & Chief Operating Officer 2710 WYCLIFF ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27607
Roselyn R Bar officer: VP, Gen. Counsel and Secy C/O MARTIN MARIETTA MATERIALS INC, 2710 WYCLIFF ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27607
Anthony R Foxx director 2710 WYCLIFF ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27607
Zelnak Stephen P Jr director, officer: Chairman, President and CEO MARTIN MARIETTA MATERIALS INC, 2710 WYCLIFF ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27607
David C Wajsgras director 870 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
John J Koraleski director MARTIN MARIETTA, 2710 WYCLIFF ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27607
Daniel L. Grant officer: SVP - Strategy and Development 2710 WYCLIFF ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27607
Thomas Pike director C/O ACCENTURE, 161 N. CLARK STREET, 23RD FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60601
Laree E Perez director 1111 LOUISIANA STREET, HOUSTON TX 77002